Climatic Indexes

Climate change is bringing with it new challenges and uncertainties. Long-term climatic reference data may no longer be valid to make long-term estimations. These predictions, like Typical Meteorological Years or Climatic Mean Values, are good future estimators based on the assumption of a non-changeable climate. But in a changing climate these long-term references and the uncertainties around them need to be constantly re-assessed. WeatherTrend can create Climatic Indexes for the weather variables that affect your business helping to quantify how climate change may be already affecting your operations.

Case Study - Portfolio Wind Power Generation Indexes

Estimating next month or next year’s wind power generation poses a challenge to Wind Farm owners. These estimations are normally based on real historical generation data. In many cases, wind farms have only been in operation for a few years, and therefore there is limited climatic context. Additionally, each wind farm within a portfolio may have been in operation for different lengths of time and will be distributed across geographical areas which are affected by different wind regimes. As such, historically observed values for a complete portfolio are typically hard to standardise.


To solve this problem, WeatherTrend has developed its own methodology to calculate regional or portfolio Wind Indexes. Using publicly available reanalysis datasets (ERA, MERRA,…), we are able to calculate what a portfolio wind power generation would have been if the current total installed power had been operative since 1979, within a small margin of error. This provides a consistent long-term value which provides a good monthly and yearly wind generation estimation.

What does WeatherTrend offer?

Easy to replicate and transparent methodology

WeatherTrend’s Wind Index is calculated using free source programming code and freely accessible reanalysis datasets.

No need for metadata

WeatherTrend’s Wind Index is built using only the client’s wind generation observed data. There is no need for hub height metadata or complex GIS raster data.

Quick delivery

WeatherTrend can generate a Wind Index in a few days, and it is always generated along with a validation report.