During the year 2019, WeatherTrend´s month ahead wind power forecast for Spain yielded a higher skill than the raw ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ENS extended forecast.
WeatherTrend´s month ahead forecasts use the ECMWF ENS extended as their primary source of information, but they are enhanced by our proprietary analogue year finder tools and the analysis of our experienced meteorologists.
WeatherTrend´s forecast consistently achieved better results in most months. With the exception of August, where our forecast was slightly worse than the raw ENS extended, our forecast yielded better skill, particularly in the months that the ECMWF model showed its worst results
The result of the November 2019 forecast was especially remarkable. In October 2019 WeatherTrend advised its clients about the possibility of the wind power generation in Spain in November to be 20-30% above the climatic value (6730 MW). The final value was 47% above normal (9900 MW), the highest month on record since 1979 (according to WeatherTrend´s Spain Wind Index). Our departure from the observed value was 25%, while the ECMWF extended model deviated by 42%.
The analysis of the data suggests that WeatherTrend´s month ahead forecast does a very good job in those situations where the ECMWF model had a weak performance. This is especially valuable in trading operations, as it provides our clients with a competitive advantage in situations of high price volatility.